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By Roger O'Daniel

Picture in your mind two people tossing identical coins.  One side reads "War"; the other side reads "Peace."  What are the odds that both coins will read "Peace" when they reach the floor?  The answer is one chance in four.  Add a third coin tosser.  Now what are the odds that all three coins will read "Peace" when they come to rest?  The answer is one in nine eight.  Add more combatants and the odds for peace become geometrically worse.

In ancient history, warfare was a one-on-one situation because the weapons, while lethal, were not massively lethal.  Today, a warrior can push a button, wipe out millions of people and poison the land to kill many more.  An insane person could destroy the livability of our planet with today's weaponry.

How do we contain the urges of a powerful group of people to restrain them?  If the urge for self-preservation trumps their hatred or lust, deterrence works.  How do we contain the urges for a radical mindset that prefers "martyrdom" over self-preservation and believes that their hostile action is serving "God"?  Deterrence doesn't work for these people.  Pre-emption remains the only option (kill, isolate, cage and take away their toys).

So how does a "righteous" super-power pre-empt an aggressor without risking the onset of a planet-destructive cascading war that threatens all biological life?

Picture in your mind another scene.  A puppy is confronted by a male alley cat.  The puppy assumes the submission position.  It rolls over on its back and bears its tummy.  The alley cat scratches from throat to hind legs.  The puppy learns a valuable lesson as it gets stitched up by a local veterinarian.

Consider one final scene, an animal disarmament conference.  The dove says, “Sharp beaks and talons must go.”  The lamb adds, “And claws, long sharp teeth and strong jaws must go too.”  The bear rises and says, “Comrades, I have the solution.  Let us outlaw everything except the great universal embrace.”  The python and anaconda agree.

Vice-Admiral Robert M. Monroe penned an article for the New York Times titled, “Peace Through Nuclear Strength.”  Here is the link:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/23/peace-through-nucle...

He asserts that the US Senate should NOT ratify the comprehensive test ban treaty.

Pop Quiz: Plant names on the coin tossers, the “righteous” super-powers, the martyr warrior, the puppy, bear, lamb and the alley cat.  Now analyze that combination and decide a way out of this mess.  Any suggestions come to mind?

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Comment by Upaces on April 4, 2012 at 11:31pm

funny motivational poster: Let Peace Rain - The terrorists have won the coin toss and elected to receive.

Comment by June Gagnon on April 4, 2012 at 11:25pm

Raymond-Just a PS-it's NOT an "insane proposal"; it makes more sense than most of what I've read today!

Comment by June Gagnon on April 4, 2012 at 11:24pm

Raymond Burke-I fully support your proposal, with one slight difference; we do NOT ask the un for "approval" of anything - -we kick their sorry butts off the continent!


Author
Comment by Roger O'Daniel on April 2, 2012 at 2:47am

I did suggest a solution that would not require any military action.  Line up all the government contractors along Iran's Northern border.  Line up the trial and tort lawyers on Iran's Western border.  And then yell "Charge!"  And you know how those devils charge.  Iran would be broke within hours and be unable to buy anything.

Comment by tom dodd on April 2, 2012 at 2:42am

 

"Russia has sworn to attack anyone who attacks Iran..."

...I HAVEN'T heard that before now... any links available?

 


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Comment by Roger O'Daniel on April 2, 2012 at 2:40am

Iran has enough highly-enriched U235 (20%) to makd dirty bombs.  It is relatively easy to get to 80% or even 99% U235 from 20%.  If Iran does that, they will have enough U235 to make 4 nuclear bombs.  The "Big Bertha" bomb US dropped on Japan had 80% U235.  Russia has sworn to attack anyone who attacks Iran with anything, nuclear or not.  A nuclear attack would get China involved.  If you want to bomb with carpets, even that might be a bad idea.  After all, Iran was once Persia.  They could turn them into magic carpets to attack our Special Forces.

Comment by Raymond E. Burke on April 1, 2012 at 10:15pm

I did not suggest a nuclear attack, Roger.  Carpet bombing their primary ancillary targets should do the trick.  A devastated Iran would cease to be an immediate threat.  Negotiate deals with Russia and China to mollify them.  The remaining contenders should fall in line.  Muslims will continue to make trouble worldwide and should be forcefully resisted at every opportunity.  So there is my tongue-in-cheek solution. to our most vexing problem.  What say you?


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Comment by Roger O'Daniel on April 1, 2012 at 2:35pm

@Raymond E. Burke, we have no money to replenish our smart bomb and cruise missile inventory.  We used them all up in Libya and even had to loan our NATO ally (Sweden) bombs and munition because they ran out of ordinance during that conflict.  Do you know what a cruise missile costs these days?  $1.2 million.   Smart bombs are equally pricey.  A single round-trip fighter attack, called a sortie, cost us $10,000 and that did not include the munitions.  As for nukes, Communist China is downwind and Russia swore to defend Iran if attacked.

I covered this topic in more detail in several posts that are still on PAN-2.  The only link that still works reliably (well, sort of) is http://Wisesooth.PatriotActionNetwork.com.  Look in the "Military" category.

Comment by Joseph R. Florian on April 1, 2012 at 2:34pm

For three coins, it is one out 8, not one out of 9.  It's just binary.  For N coins, the number of arrangements is just 2^N. So for N = 3, 2^3 = 8.  Only one arrangement will have all coins showing 'peace'.  So this probablity is simply 1 out of N.

Comment by Raymond E. Burke on April 1, 2012 at 12:33am

Well, we could always lower the boom on Iran, bombing them them back into the 10th century while informing the rest of the world that any sword rattler of any stripe, threatening our tranquility, would be treated in similar fashion.  In the meantime, declare Islam non grata In the U.S. and its territories and close all mosques, forcefully if necessary.  Next, banish all known or potentially dangerous muslims by either shipping them home or incarcerating them in our already established FEMA camps. After all that is accomplished, we can then tackle the problem of obtaining the approval of the United Nations.

  How many of you out there would support this insane proposal?



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